Highlights from DSCC’s Latest Display Capacity Forecast

Published September 16, 2019

In our latest Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report, we extended our capacity forecasts out to 2025 which produced a number of interesting results.

First, we now see total display capacity rising at a 4% CAGR from 2018-2025 with OLEDs rising at a 20% CAGR and LCDs rising at a 3% CAGR. The OLED share of display capacity is expected to rise jump from 5% to 14% as new OLED fabs are built, some LCD fabs are converted to OLEDs and some LCD fabs are downsized or shut down. Looking at just mobile applications shows a different story with rigid and flexible OLEDs overtaking LTPS/oxide LCDs in 2020 and reaching a 65% share of mobile capacity in 2025. OLEDs are expected to grow at a 13% CAGR with LCDs growing at a 2% CAGR. We also show flexible OLEDs overtaking rigid OLEDs in unyielded capacity in 2018 and mobile LCDs in 2022. Mobile LCD capacity is expected to stall from 2020 with flexible OLED capacity accounting for a 49% share of mobile display capacity in 2025, so let’s hope foldable, rollable and stretchable costs fall and demand surges.

OLED vs. LCD Capacity Share Forecast

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report


Mobile LCD vs. Mobile OLED Capacity Share Forecast

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

By country, China’s share of display capacity is expected to rise from 40% in 2018 to 58% in 2025 on an 8% CAGR. From 2020, China will have more than a 2X higher share than Korea or Taiwan and its share will be more than 3X higher than Korea from 2021. Korea’s capacity is expected to fall at a -2.5% CAGR with other regions flat. We may see even faster declines outside of China on more downsizing or shut downs of conditions don’t improve. In LCDs, China’s share is expected to be even more dominant with its share reaching 61% from 2023 – 2025. Korea’s share is expected to fall from 24% in 2018 to 11% in 2025 on a -8% CAGR as older fabs are converted to OLEDs or shut down. Taiwan’s share peaked in 2017 at 30% and is expected to fall to 23% by the end of the forecast.

Display Capacity by Country

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

LCD Capacity by Country

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

In OLED capacity, Korea will remain the leading region for OLEDs on 12% CAGR, but its share is expected to shrink from 90% in 2018 to 56% in 2025. China’s share is expected to surge from 8% in 2018 to 43% in 2025 on 51% CAGR.


OLED Capacity by Country

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

By glass size, G8.5/8.6 is expected to be the leading generation on a capacity basis throughout the forecast, peaking in share in 2018 at 54%. It will rise at a 1.7% CAGR and lose share to G10.5 from 2019 which will rise to a 19% share on a 28% CAGR.G6 for mobile displays will grow at a 5% CAGR and maintain a 14%-16% share. G10/10.5 is expected to grow at a 45.5% CAGR and become the #2 category from 2021. Interestingly, OLED capacity by fab generation should be split rather evenly for G6 vs. G8.5 from 2020 onward with G10.5 rising to a 15% share in 2024 on OLED TV growth.

We have reduced our outlook for G7+ capacity growth on more shutdowns in Korea in the 2020-2021 timeframe. We now show G7+ capacity for LCDs and OLEDs expected to rise at a 6% CAGR from 2018 – 2025 with 12% growth in 2018 and 2019, 6% growth in 2020, 8% growth in 2021, but just 1%-3% growth from 2022-2025. The lack of capacity growth from 2022 should require more capex from 2021-2022, but it is possible that it could be an alternative technology than what exists in the market today such as microLEDs or ELQDs. We may also see more OLED TV investment than what we are showing as LCD TV spending is expected to slow dramatically from 2021.

G7+ Capacity vs. Demand Growth

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report


By display manufacturer, BOE is expected to become the #1 supplier on a capacity basis in 2019 and widen its advantage over LGD and SDC on significantly faster growth with BOE growing at an 11% CAGR, LG Display flat and Samsung falling at a -3.5% CAGR. BOE’s share will grow from 15.4% in 2018 to 19.3% in 2025. China Star is expected to overtake SDC and Innolux to reach #3 from 2022 with a 12% share in 2025 on a 12% CAGR. HKC is expected to overtake Shar for #7. In just LCDs, BOE’s capacity share is expected to reach 20% from 2021 with China Star rising to #2 in 2022 at 12% followed by Innolux, LGD and AUO. HKC is expected to overtake SDC and Sharp to become #5 from 2021. SDC’s share is expected to fall from 19% in 2016 to 6% in 2023 on a -14% CAGR as it converts capacity to OLEDs.

In total OLED capacity on an area basis, LG Display is expected to overtake SDC in 2020 on the strength of its new WOLED fab in China. SDC is expected to regain the top spot in 2025 on new mobile and TV investments. LGD’s OLED capacity is expected to rise at a 19% CAGR vs. SDC at 12%. BOE is expected to rise to #2 with a 14% share and 52% CAGR. In just mobile OLED capacity, SDC is expected to maintain a dominant position throughout the forecast with its share not falling below 50% until 2022. BOE is expected to overtake LGD in 2019 for #2 as LGD has shut down some G4.5 capacity while BOE expands. Visionox is expected to overtake LGD for #3 in 2022 with Tianma and China Star overtaking LGD in 2025 In 2025, we show SDC leading BOE with a 38% to 22% advantage with China Star and Visionox at 9%.

In unyielded flexible OLEDs, we show BOE overtaking SDC in 2023 on BOE’s expansion along with SDC converting some capacity to YOCTA. BOE’s flexible OLED capacity is expected to grow at a 50% CAGR from 2018-2025 vs. SDC at 3%. Visionox is expected to overtake LGD in 2023 with China Star overtaking LGD in 2025. In 2025, we show BOE holding a narrow 29% to 27% advantage over SDC with China Star at 12% as T4 and T5 ramp. For yielded capacity and yields by fab by phase by quarter, please see our Quarterly OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report.

We also show a comparison of the ratio of OLED vs. total capacity within each company. As indicated, SDC is furthest along in its transition to OLEDs reaching a 51% share in 2025 followed by LGD and Tianma tied at 34%. BOE and China Star are trailing at 10% and 8% respectively due to their strong LCD TV focus. For more information on this report which also includes capacity by backplane technology with all capacity data in an easy to use pivot table, please contact Gerry@displaysupplychain.com.

Display Capacity by Manufacturer

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

LCD Capacity by Manufacturer

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report


​OLED Share of Each Company’s Capacity

Source: DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report

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Written by

Ross Young

Ross.Young@DisplaySupplyChain.com