Highlights from DSCC’s Latest Display Capacity Forecast
We have upgraded our 2025 display capacity forecast by 4% vs. the previous issue of our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, due to new investments revealed and analyzed in our fab schedules as LCD manufacturers continue to add capacity and OLED manufacturers look to better address the IT market. Manufacturers are also looking to stretch capacity through process simplification and de-bottlenecking to meet demand. We now see 11% growth in 2021, 7% growth in 2022 as SDC and LGD are forecasted to accelerate shutdowns with 4% - 7% growth from 2023 – 2026 on new LCD fabs from BOE, CSOT and Tianma. The more modest growth in 2022 and from 2023 to 2026 should ease pricing pressure some. Relative to last quarter, capacity is 1% - 3% higher per year from 2023-2026.
DSCC’s Display Capacity Forecast
Display capacity is now growing at a 6.4% CAGR from 2020-2025 vs. 6.3% last quarter and at a 5.1% CAGR from 2021 to 2026. LCD capacity was upgraded by 1.2% vs. the previous issue and now grows at a 5.2% CAGR vs. 5.1% last quarter through 2025 and at a 3.9% CAGR from 2021 through 2026. OLED capacity was kept flat up 0.1% last quarter and is now expected to grow at an 18.3% CAGR vs. 18.2% last quarter through 2025 and at a 16% CAGR from 2021 through 2026.
By application, LCD TVs will continue to dominate capacity and grow at a 4.8% 2021-2026 CAGR. The LCD TV share will rise from 72% in 2020 to 74% in 2024 before falling to 72% in 2025/2026 as OLED TV and IT share grows. OLED TVs are expected to enjoy the fastest growth, rising at an 18% CAGR, with its share rising from 2% in 2020 to 6% in 2026. Mobile OLEDs, which includes IT OLED fabs, are now expected to grow at a 14% CAGR and rise from a 5% share in 2020 to 7% in 2026.
Mobile LCDs are expected to rise at a 3% CAGR and maintain a 4% share. Other LCDs are expected to fall at a 0.4% CAGR with its share declining from 17% in 2020 to 12% in 2025/2026.
DSCC’s Display Capacity Forecast by Application
By region, China is expected to dominate display capacity, growing from a 60% share in 2021 to a 72% share in 2022 on a 9% CAGR. China is projected to have at least a 46% share in all applications/technologies by the end of the forecast period led by:
- TVs – 82%;
- LCDs – 76%;
- All Displays – 72%;
- Flexible OLEDs – 58%;
- Mobile OLEDs – 52%;
- OLEDs – 46%.
Korea’s share is expected to fall from 14% in 2021 to 8% in 2026 on a 6% annual decline but leading in OLEDs, with its share between 53% and 55% between 2022 and 2026. Taiwan is now expected to show some growth, rising at a 0.3% CAGR from 2021 to 2026 although its share will fall from 20% in 2021 to 16% in 2026. Its LCD share will fall from 22% in 2021 to 18% in 2026.
Display Capacity by Region
By display supplier in 2026:
- Display Capacity - BOE is expected to lead with a 27% share followed by China Star at 16%, HKC at 11% and LGD at 8.5%;
- LCD Capacity - BOE is expected to lead with a 29% share followed by China Star at 17%, HKC at 12% and Innolux and AUO at 9%;
- OLED Capacity – LGD is expected to lead with a 34% share followed by SDC at 29% and BOE at 13%;
- Mobile OLED Capacity – SDC is expected to lead with a 40% share followed by BOE at 24% and Tianma and others at 7%;
- Flexible OLED Capacity – SDC is expected to lead with a 29% share followed by BOE at 22% and LGD and others at 12%.
For more insights on display capacity, display equipment spending and equipment supplier revenues and market share, please see our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report.