AMOLED Materials Market Will Grow to $2.7 Billion by 2024
Sales for AMOLED stack materials for all applications are expected to grow at a 23% annual rate from $951 million in 2019 to $2.69 billion in 2024, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly AMOLED Material Report. The report details all aspects of AMOLED materials, including multiple applications, supplier matrices, and cost comparisons.
OLED Material Revenues by Application, 2019-2024
The current update includes revised input area for AMOLED, with reduced input area for both OLED TV and mobile AMOLED in 2020 due to the slowdown in demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The report extends our forecast for Input Area (and for OLED materials consumption and revenues) out to 2024.
The report details the OLED stack configurations of all the major AMOLED product architectures, including Small/Medium panels with RGB pixel structure, White OLED by LGD for TV panels, and QD-OLED by Samsung. The stack profiles, along with estimates of material thickness, material utilization, and material prices, form a picture of the unyielded stack cost for each AMOLED product architecture; the stack cost for WOLED is shown in the next chart. Based on steady, incremental improvements in material utilization and material price reductions, we expect that unyielded stack costs per square meter for WOLED will decline from $95.21 in 2019 to $56.11 in 2024, which will be a meaningful contributor to cost reduction required for LGD to keep OLED TV competitive with aggressively priced LCD TV. For LGD the yielded cost is more important, and yield improvements at both its Korea and China fabs will be critical to bringing overall panel costs down.
Unyielded OLED Stack Material Cost per Square Meter, 2019-2024
We expect that the OLED stack costs for QD OLED will be substantially lower than those for WOLED. When QD OLED is introduced, its unyielded stack costs are expected to be 30-40% lower. Of course, that’s only a part of the picture, because the yields on the mature WOLED technology will certainly be higher than those for QD OLED in its initial stages, and the color converter in QD OLED will be substantially more expensive than the color filter used in WOLED. While we expect the OLED stack cost of QD OLED to be lower than that of WOLED, we expect the total product cost of QD OLED to be higher.
While inkjet printing with soluble OLED materials promises improvements in both performance and cost, and we have seen the first mass production of inkjet printed OLEDs in 2020 with JOLED’s expansion, we do not expect that soluble materials will be widely used during our forecast time frame, as shown in the next chart, since almost all of the recent and upcoming investment in OLED has been for evaporative deposition. Whether via fine metal mask for small/medium displays or via open mask for TV sizes, evaporative OLED materials will continue to dominate the market.
Material Revenues by Deposition Type, 2019-2024
Based on the existing supplier matrix, the report includes a projection of AMOLED material revenues by supplier; new for this quarter we provide separate projections for AMOLED revenues for small applications and for TV, with revenues for small applications shown in the next chart. Universal Display Corporation (UDC) has been the #1 supplier in revenues for the industry, and we expect that to continue. Novaled holds the number two position among materials suppliers, and we expect that to continue. Merck is the third-largest supplier in terms of revenues to the entire AMOLED industry, but has a smaller share of revenues in small applications. These three companies are expected to capture 57% of industry revenues in 2024, but as the chart indicates there is a long tail of companies supplying materials into the industry.
The methodology applied in the OLED Material report generates an estimate of “revenues of OLED materials consumed by panel makers”, which can be somewhat different than “revenues of OLED materials purchased by panel makers”. While over the long term these two will be the same, in any specific time period there can be build-ups or drawdowns of material inventory by panel makers that may cause a difference.
OLED Materials Revenues from Small Applications by Supplier, 2019 – 2024
The DSCC Quarterly AMOLED Material Report includes profiles for all major AMOLED stack architectures, supplier matrices for the main OLED panel makers and revenue projections for 17 different material types and 20 material suppliers. For more information about the report, please contact Gerry McGinley at 770-503-6318, e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your regional DSCC office in China, Japan or Korea.