Double-Digit Capacity Growth in 2022 Points to Continued Pricing Pressure
DSCC’s latest quarterly display capacity update should create a concern among large-area display suppliers and an opportunity for buyers. DSCC expects G7+ capacity to rise 10% in 2022 after a 13% increase in 2021. With LCD TV panel prices already falling rapidly, IT panel prices flattening, demand growth uncertain in 2022 and component shortages expected to ease next year, 2022 should increasingly become a buyer’s market. 2023 will depend on whether or not LGD takes more capacity offline or not. If it keeps all its LCD capacity online in 2023, the surplus will likely continue to widen. If it takes projected capacity offline, pricing will be stabilized with the potential to rise. The outlook for 2024 and 2025 currently shows less capacity growth at 6% - 7% which assumes BOE B17+ gets built as a G10.5 LCD fab. If BOE goes in a different direction such as acquiring a competitor or moving to G8.5 OLED for IT applications, it will create less pricing pressure. As prices come down in 2022 and beyond, we expect to see panel manufacturers increasingly shift their emphasis to miniLEDs which have significantly higher prices in order to keep their revenues up.