DSCC Downgrades AMOLED Smartphone Growth in 2022 on Weak Rigid Demand at Huawei and Honor
In 2021, our preliminary AMOLED smartphone panel shipment results show that 2021 will have a total of 644M AMOLED smartphone panel shipments, up 28% Y/Y. Of the 644M units, rigid AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 42% unit share, flexible AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 55% unit share and foldable AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 2% unit share.
In our previous forecasts for 2022, we had estimated a total of 765M AMOLED smartphone panels on a 11% Y/Y growth from rigid AMOLED smartphone panels, a 27% Y/Y growth for flexible AMOLED smartphone panels and an 80% Y/Y growth from foldable AMOLED smartphone panels. On an AMOLED smartphone revenue basis, we had estimated $36.7B in revenue with rigid AMOLED smartphone panels accounting for a 21% revenue share, flexible AMOLED smartphones panels accounting for a 72% revenue share and foldable AMOLED smartphone panels accounting for an 8% revenue share.
As a result of updated information, we learned regarding Honor and Huawei, we have downgraded our 2022 AMOLED smartphone forecast. We learned that Honor and Huawei will no longer procure rigid AMOLED smartphones panels starting in 2022. Prior to this information, Honor and Huawei accounted for a combined 11% unit share and a combined 10% revenue share in our 2022 forecast. In addition, based on the growth in 5G, higher refresh rates, under panel cameras and more innovations to come, we had forecasted that AMOLED smartphones panels would overtake LCD smartphones in 2023. With this recent forecast downgrade, we are now forecasting that AMOLED smartphone panels will overtake LCD panels in 2024.
From a historical perspective by panel suppliers, SDC was supplying most rigid AMOLED smartphone panels in 2020 to Huawei. In 2021, EDO and Visionox began to supply rigid AMOLED smartphone panels to Honor and Huawei with EDO supplying ~60% from their G6 Shanghai facility and Visionox supplying ~40% from their Gen 5.5 facility. For various reasons, EDO and Visionox could not satisfy the requirements from Honor and Huawei. While SDC has smartphone rigid capacity and leads all panel suppliers with a 65% unit share, we expect that SDC will continue to leverage their rigid capacity for brands like Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo for their low to mid-range AMOLED smartphones. We also expect SDC to leverage more of their rigid capacity for IT applications, such as notebooks, monitors and tablets and continue to drive volume in this category until their G8.5 OLED fabs using vertical FMM VTE tools comes online in 2024.
Annual AMOLED Smartphone Panels by Form Factor, 2020 – 2022
Annual Rigid AMOLED Smartphone Brand Share by Form Factor, 2020-2022
In 2022, we also expect Honor and Huawei to start selling more LCD smartphones to make up for the volume shortfall. In 2021, rigid AMOLED smartphone panels accounted for a 11% unit share for Huawei, and a 4% unit share for Honor. As a result of Honor and Huawei selling more LCD smartphones in 2022, we show LCD smartphone panels shipments increasing 1% Y/Y in 2022 after losing share in previous years to AMOLED smartphone panels.
In 2023, we expect LCD smartphone panel shipments to decline 4% Y/Y and onward as AMOLED smartphone panel shipments increase 13% Y/Y and overtakes LCD smartphone panel shipments in units in 2024.