DSCC Releases Q3’19 Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report – Forecasts Extended to 2024 as Visibility Improves
DSCC has released the latest issue of its popular Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Report. In this issue, forecasts were extended to 2024 as we were able to include a healthy increase in new fabs where probabilities have recently improved. Relative to previous issues, we added the following mobile OLED fabs:
- Tianma Xiamen
- CSOT T5
- Visionox V4
In addition, we are starting to see more investments being made in China for RGB ink jet printing OLEDs. As a result, we added:
- CSOT T8 G6
- BOE G8.5
We also added existing and new IJP R&D tools at BOE B5.The report also added 3 new equipment segments:
- eBeam SEMs which AMAT pioneered and dominates.
- CF AOI – This means we now cover nearly all of the major CF tools, 2 years before it starts to drop dramatically. V Technology has dominated this segment, but HB Tech recently received a large PO from HKC H4.
- Module Lamination – This was an important category to add as there can be over 100 lamination tools per 15K line for all of the different films (touch, OCA, polarizer, protection films, cover glass) being laminated onto a flexible OLED.
Our latest report shows $97B in LCD and OLED equipment spending from 2018 - 2024. As indicated, we show:
- 2019 down 26% to $15.5B with OLED spending down 64% and LCD spending up 23%. LCDs are accounting for 72% of 2019 spending. Hence, TVs/Other are expected to lead mobile with a 91% to 9% advantage.
- 2020 is expected to rebound with 31% growth to $20.3B with the market split 50/50 between LCD and OLED. LCDs are projected to fall 9% with OLED spending up 132% on new mobile OLED fabs in China. Mobile’s share of spending is expected to jump to 40% with TV/Other at 60%.
- 2021 is expected to fall 48% to $10.5B with OLEDs accounting for a 75% share. OLED spending is expected to fall 22%, but LCD spending is expected to fall 74% from $10.2B to $2.6B as LCD spending winds down. Mobile is expected to gain the upper hand with a 58% to 42% advantage as LCD spending trails off.
- 2022 is expected to fall 11% to $9.4B, but OLED spending is expected to rise 9%. However, the OLED growth won’t offset the 71% decline in LCD spending in what is currently shown to be the last year in new LCD fab equipment spending. OLEDs are expected to lead with a 92% share and mobile is expected to lead with a 57% share with OLED TVs making a large contribution.
- In 2023 and 2024, we show OLEDs enjoying a 100% share. In 2023, equipment spending is expected to rise 14% to $10.7B with OLEDs up 24%. In 2024, we show equipment spending falling 14% to $9.3B as the market hovers around $10B. OLED TVs are expected to lead in 2023 with a 64% share with mobile OLEDs leading in 2024.
- From 2018-2024, BOE will lead in equipment spending with $26B and a 27% share followed by China Star with a 16% share, LGD at 10% and Visionox at 8%.
Display Equipment Spending Forecast
Display Equipment Spending by Frontplane Technology
Display Equipment Spending by Application
The report also shows equipment spending for either LCDs or OLEDs by:
- Substrate type – rigid vs. flexible
- Substrate Size
- Bookings vs. Billings
- Equipment process – backplane vs. frontplane vs. CF vs. Cell vs. Module
- Equipment segment – 67 segments in total
- Equipment segment by supplier - the historical and projected market share coverage by segment continues to increase.
For more information on this report, please contact Gerry@displaysupplychain.com.