DSCC’s Latest Display Capacity Forecast Shows LCD Capacity to Remain Tight
Last week DSCC issued the display capacity chapter of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. Highlights include:
- We have upgraded our 2025 display capacity forecast by 3% which is mostly a result of pulling in a number of OLED fabs, the addition of LGD E6-3 and small expansions at a few LCD fabs. We now show display capacity growing at just a 2.7% CAGR.
- By application:
- LCD TVs continue to dominate capacity, but are only growing at a 1.4% CAGR with their share falling from 72% in 2020 to 67% in 2025.
- OLED TVs are expected to enjoy the fastest growth, rising at a 32% CAGR with their share rising from 2% in 2020 to 7% in 2025.
- Mobile OLEDs are expected to grow at an 11% CAGR, up from 10%, and reach a 7% share, up from 5% in 2020.
Display Capacity by Application
Large-area Supply Growth
In terms of total large-area capacity growth defined as G7+, DSCC sees slower capacity growth than in past years. G7+ LCD & OLED capacity is only expected to grow at a 2.8% CAGR from 2020 – 2025. After double-digit growth in 2018 and 2019 and 6.5% growth in 2020, 2021 is only expected to grow 2.5% and 2022-2025 is expected to range from 1% - 4% per year. This slower growth should keep capacity tight, lead to better market conditions for display makers and lead to additional capex.
G7+ Capacity and Growth
- China is the only region experiencing capacity growth over the forecast, rising at a 7.5% CAGR with Korea down at a 12.4% CAGR, Japan down 0.3% and Singapore and Taiwan flat.
- China’s share is expected to rise from 53% in 2020 to 67% in 2025, Korea’s share is expected to fall from 19% to 8% while Taiwan’s share falls from 22% to 20%.
- By country by application/technology, China is gaining significant share in all applications and technologies and will have at least a 50% share in each as shown in the figure.
- In LCDs, China’s share is expected to reach 70% from 2023. In OLEDs, China’s share is expected to reach 50% from 30% in 2020. Korea’s share of OLED capacity is expected to fall from 68% in 2020 to 48% in 2025. In mobile OLEDs, China is expected to overtake Korea in 2024 and reach a 54% share in 2025, up from 31%, with Korea’s share falling from 68% to 45%.
China's Capacity Share by Application/Technology
To escape the subsidized, low margin, but recently rising, competition in LCDs, Korean suppliers Samsung and LGD are rapidly moving to OLEDs where they currently have a technology, capacity and quality advantage. As seen in the figure, Samsung Display’s capacity will be 100% OLED from 2022 with LGD also well above the industry average.
OLED Share of Each Company’s Display Capacity
By manufacturer, BOE became the #1 display supplier on a capacity basis in 2019 with a 17.5% to 16.6% advantage over LGD. We expect BOE to widen its advantage on a 9% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 due to its acquisition of most of CEC Panda.
China Star is expected to become #2 in 2022 on its acquisition of SDC Suzhou and its new fabs. LGD is expected to fall from #2 in 2020 to #5 in 2022 on its capacity shutdowns before rebounding to #4 in 2020 on its anticipated G10.5 OLED fab.
The report also includes market share by panel supplier for LCDs, OLEDs, flexible OLEDs, rigid OLEDs, oxide LCDs, oxide OLEDs, RGB IJP, by glass size and much more. For more information, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org. You can also get a taste of DSCC’s capacity forecasts by viewing its recent Virtual Conference found at: https://bit.ly/3mNB1iE.