Samsung Display and BOE Gain OLED Share in Q1’20
DSCC released the historical version of its Q2’20 Quarterly OLED Shipment Report which includes Q1’20 actual OLED shipments by panel supplier and procurement by brand as well as a forecast of the same contents through Q4’20. In a few weeks, we will be providing an annual forecast through 2025.
Highlights of the latest report include:
- OLED revenues rose 24% Y/Y in Q1’20 to $6.7B, which was down 18% Q/Q. Smartphones rose from an 80.4% share in Q4’19 to an 81.1% in Q1’20 with OLED TVs rising from 9.2% to 9.4% and smart watches seeing the largest decline on seasonal trends falling from 7.0% to 5.9%. The Q/Q decline of 18% was significantly less than last year’s 33% despite COVID-19 as OLEDs gained ground in most applications. Samsung purchased the most OLED panels in Q1’20 at over $2.8B resulting in a 41% share followed by Apple at $1.3B and a 20% share.
- Both Samsung Display (SDC) and BOE gained share in Q1’20 at the expense of LG Display (LGD) due to a weak quarter for LGD’s smartphone panel business.
- SDC’s total OLED revenue share rose from 71.5% in Q4’19 to 74.0% in Q1’20 on an 15% Q/Q decline but a 25% Y/Y increase to $5.0B. Its smartphone panel revenue share rose from 83% in Q4’19 to 86% in Q1’20 with revenues up 24% Y/Y but down 14% Q/Q. Its blended smartphone ASPs rose 3% Q/Q and 13% Y/Y as larger flexible and foldable panels took share. In particular, the A71, with its flexible OLED, was a bright spot vs. a lower priced rigid panel in last year’s A70 as well as the Galaxy Z Flip. SDC is expected to maintain a dominant position in the OLED smartphone market although its revenue share is expected to fall to 72.2% in Q4’20 on share gains by BOE and LGD.
- BOE’s total OLED revenue share rose from 2.6% in Q4’19 to 5.6% in Q1’20 on 77% Q/Q and 9% Y/Y growth. Its smartphone revenue share rose from 1.9% to 6.0%, nearly overtaking LGD, as it penetrated a number of new accounts and models in Q1’20, particularly 5G models which are a catalyst for flexible OLEDs. Its share is expected to reach 12.0% in Q4’20 as it continues to penetrate more Huawei models and new customers such as LGE, Oppo, Xiaomi and even Apple. All its design wins by model are revealed in the report.
- LGD’s OLED revenues fell 30% Q/Q while rising 21% Y/Y to $1.1B. Its revenue share fell from 16.8% in Q1’19 and 19.2% in Q4’19 to 16.5% in Q1’20. It lost significant ground in its OLED smartphone business in Q1’20 as a result of its strategy to focus on Apple and Huawei which added to the seasonality of this business. Its OLED smartphone revenue share fell from 9.8% in Q4’19 to 6.4% in Q1’20 with revenues falling 46% Q/Q although they were up 167% Y/Y. However, it should make up significant ground in 2H’20 on Apple’s iPhone 12 launch resulting in an 11% share in 2H’20. It was unable to make any ground in TVs due to a slowdown in its OLED TV business resulting from COVID-19 with panel shipments falling 17% Q/Q and up just 5% Y/Y on a unit basis with revenues down 16% Q/Q while rising 12% Y/Y. The seasonal decline was significantly worse in 2020 vs. 2019 when it only experienced a 3% Q/Q unit and 2% Y/Y revenue decline in Q1’19. The first half of 2020 has been a difficult period for LGD’s OLED TV business due to a widening price gap with LCDs, the closing of most retail outlets where OLED TVs are sold from COVID-19 and more than a 6-month delay in its new OLED TV panel fab in China due to COVID-19 and yield issues.
- In the case of smartphones:
- OLED smartphone panel shipments were up 9% Y/Y while falling 20% Q/Q to 99 million units. However, revenues performed better up 25% Y/Y and down 17% to $5.4B on gains by flexible and foldable OLEDs at the expense of rigid as well as larger and higher resolution panels and higher value added panels such as integrated touch.
- The flexible OLED smartphone unit share rose from 39% in Q4’19 to 49.9% in Q1’20, exceeding the rigid share for the first time which fell from 60% to 49.6%. The foldable unit share rose from 0.3% to 0.5% as units surged from the Galaxy Z Flip. On a revenue basis, the flexible OLED share rose from 65% in Q1’19 and 68% in Q4’19 to 75% in Q1’20. The foldable share rose from 0.9% in Q4’19 to 1.3% in Q1’20 and the rigid share fell from 35% in Q1’19 and 31% in Q4’19 to 24% in Q1’20.
- A number of other OLED applications showed impressive Y/Y growth with a few also showing Q/Q growth.
- Other than tablets, every OLED application was up double-digits Y/Y in revenues with automotive and notebook displays also up Q/Q.
- Looking forward, DSCC expects OLED revenues to rise 18% in 2020 to $33B with smartphones maintaining an 81% share on 18% revenue growth to $26.6B. OLED smartphone shipments will rise 6% in 2020 with flexible displays growing their share from 35% in 2019 to 47% in 2020. Flexible displays will lose share to rigid in Q2’20 on traditional product launch seasonality, as they did in 2018 and 2019, and regain share in Q3’20 and Q4’20. OLED TVs will lose ground on a revenue basis in 2020, falling from a 9.0% share in 2019 to an 8.7% share in 2020 despite 19% unit growth to 4.0M units and 14% revenue growth as challenges in the TV market from COVID-19 and the delayed ramp cause it to grow slower than other applications. 64% of 2020 OLED TV panel shipments are expected in the second half of the year as retail opens and LGD’s new fab ramps. Notebook are also expected to gain significant share on a revenue basis rising from 0.5% to 1.4% on over a 500% increase in units to 3.1M. Apple is expected to spend the most on OLED panels in 2020 on its all OLED iPhone 12 launch at $9.8B and a 30% share followed by Samsung at $8.8B and a 27% share.