After the Post-Pandemic Downturn, Recovery for Advanced TV Market Expected to Start in 2024 with Long Term Growth Projected

La Jolla, CA -

  • After a down year in 2023, Advanced TVs expected to resume unit growth in 2024 and revenue growth in 2025.
  • Longer term growth will be in the high-single digits percentage.
  • MiniLED will gain share in the super premium market vs. OLED TV.

Advanced TV shipments declined in both units and revenue in 2023, but we expect a recovery in units to start in 2024 and will extend to revenues starting in 2025, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers.

For the full year 2024, we forecast that Advanced TV shipments will increase by 4% Y/Y with OLED growth outpacing Advanced LCD TV. We forecast Advanced TV revenues for the full year 2024 to decline by 3% Y/Y, with both OLED TV and Advanced LCD TV revenues declining.

Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology, 2019 to 2028

Source: DSCC Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report
Source: DSCC Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report

In our updated long-term forecast, total Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by an 8% CAGR from 2023 to 2028.

Advanced TV revenues declined in both 2022 and 2023 as prices continued to decline with soft demand. We expect revenues to decline another 3% in 2024 before resuming growth in 2025. We expect revenues to surpass the 2021 peak in 2027, driven by increasing volumes, larger screen sizes and new technologies.

In the OLED vs. MiniLED battle, MiniLED has grown rapidly from 2021 but remained behind OLED in unit and revenue share for 2023. MiniLED has an advantage in LCD cost-effectiveness in 65”/75” sizes because of Gen 10.5 production, and lower costs for >75” panels, but OLED remains the top tier at each screen size with the highest prices and the premium brands.

MiniLED TV share of the premium “MiniLED + OLED” category increased to 40% in 2023 and will continue to increase. MiniLED TV unit shipments are forecast to surpass OLED TV unit shipments in 2027.

OLED TV revenue peaked in 2021 and has declined for two consecutive years while MiniLED has grown, and MiniLED TV revenue share of the premium “MiniLED + OLED” category increased to 38% in 2023. While we expect OLED TV revenue to rebound starting in 2024, MiniLED TV revenue share of the premium space will continue to increase.

OLED TV (L) and MiniLED TV (R) Revenues, 2020 to 2028

DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report includes technical descriptions of all major advanced TV display technologies, plus quarterly shipment history through Q4 2023, sortable by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and includes pivot tables for analysis of units, revenues, ASPs and other metrics. The report includes DSCC’s quarterly forecast out to 2028 across technology, region, resolution and size. Readers interested in subscribing to the DSCC Advanced TV Shipment Report should contact info@displaysupplychain.com.

About DSCC

DSCC, a Counterpoint Research Company, is the leader in advanced display market research with offices across all the key manufacturing centers and markets of East Asia as well as the US and UK. It was formed by experienced display market analysts from across the display supply chain and delivers valuable insights, data and supply chain analyses on the display industry through consulting, syndicated reports and events. Its accurate and timely analyses help businesses navigate the complexities of the display supply chain.